Matthew J. Bourque and Xuejing Wang : Intervention Analysis in a Water Usage Study

Posted by , part of the Statistics and Data Science Seminar.

At

April 24, 2008, 2:15 p.m.

In

SEO 712

Abstract

A water main bringing water into a Chicago suburb was damaged on or about January 5, 2002. The damage was not discovered until February 11, 2004, for a total of approximately 765 days. We have daily water usage data from 1989 through 2007, and want to determine (i) whether there is a statistically significant increase in water flow during the period from January 2002 until February 2004 and (ii) if there is a significant increase, to estimate the amount of extra water flow during that time. We use intervention analysis to fit an ARIMA model, and from the estimates of the parameters we get the result. We will also discuss more generally about intervention analysis.